Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Technology can easily do that unless there will be regulatory limits
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
I believe this is in the "low but nonzero" range. Microsoft Research Asia would not easily close unless something really urgent happened such as an abrupt change of geopolitics.
Files
