DippySkippy

About:

Interests: Systems change through philanthropy, forecasting, golf, and Arsenal FC.

I also forecast on Good Judgement Open: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/89038

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? 0.00066
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? 0.00644
    Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) 0.137204
    May 31, 2025 05:00PM On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? 0.01307
    Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? 0.00047
    Jan 4, 2025 05:00PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025) 0.009894
    Jan 2, 2025 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 2, 2024 and Jan 2, 2025) -0.000019
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? 0.000333
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? -0.008868
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? -0.002146
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? 0.003743
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? 0.005189
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? 0.002271
    Jan 1, 2025 05:00AM By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA? 0.00394
    Dec 28, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 28, 2024 and Dec 28, 2024) 0.0
    Dec 15, 2024 10:00PM In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2024 and Dec 15, 2024) -0.001963
    Dec 4, 2024 05:00PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024) -0.023567
    Dec 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 2, 2024 and Dec 2, 2024) 0.0
    Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? -0.045087
    Nov 30, 2024 04:59AM Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025? -0.034273
     
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