Forecasted Questions
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 09, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Apr 09, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024 | May 9, 2024 | 3% | -2% | +0% |
No | 99% | Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024 | May 9, 2024 | 97% | +2% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 09, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Apr 09, 2024 04:20PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024 | May 9, 2024 | 3% | -3% | +3% |
No | 100% | Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024 | May 9, 2024 | 97% | +3% | -3% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 09, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Apr 09, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 3% | 9% | -6% | +2% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 10% | 11% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 13, 2024 09:03PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Apr 13, 2024 09:03PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 12% | Apr 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025 | Jul 13, 2024 | 14% | -2% | +9% |
No | 88% | Apr 13, 2024 to Apr 13, 2025 | Jul 13, 2024 | 86% | +2% | -9% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024 | Jul 25, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 6% | 4% | +2% | +0% |
No | 94% | 96% | -2% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
No | 96% | 98% | -2% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 7% | 4% | +3% | +0% |
No | 93% | 96% | -3% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 8% | -4% | -1% |
No | 96% | 92% | +4% | +1% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 07:42AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 07:42AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Oman | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Qatar | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |