Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2021 10:15PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 10, 2021 10:15PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 27% | 35% | -8% | -1% |
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2021 09:50PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 13, 2021 09:50PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2021 10:57PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 27, 2021 10:57PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2022 10:46AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 10:46AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 48% | 48% | +0% | +1% |
| Microsoft | 23% | 22% | +1% | +0% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 10% | 13% | -3% | +0% |
| Amazon | 14% | 10% | +4% | +0% |
| Tesla | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Other | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 07, 2022 11:28AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 07, 2022 11:28AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 05, 2022 04:50PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 05, 2022 04:50PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
As of Apr 14, 2024 08:17PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 14, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 14, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024 | Apr 14, 2024 | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days ago)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 07:42AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 07:42AM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |