INFER Public

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 01:20AM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
Latvia	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
Lithuania	2%	1%	+1%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 09:20AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024	Jun 3, 2024	3%	-2%	-4%
No	99%	May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024	Jun 3, 2024	97%	+2%	+4%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 09:20AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	1%	1%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	5%	4%	+1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	94%	95%	-1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 09:22AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
No	97%	96%	+1%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 09:22AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025	Aug 3, 2024	6%	+2%	-2%
No	92%	May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025	Aug 3, 2024	94%	-2%	+2%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 09:24AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	11%	-9%	-3%
No	98%	89%	+9%	+3%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2024 01:15AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	May 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025	Aug 6, 2024	8%	-4%	-5%
No	96%	May 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025	Aug 6, 2024	92%	+4%	+5%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2024 01:17AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Qatar	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2024 01:27AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	99%	96%	+3%	+1%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	1%	4%	-3%	-1%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 200	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 07:10PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024	Jun 13, 2024	3%	-2%	+0%
No	99%	May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024	Jun 13, 2024	97%	+2%	+0%

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