Forecasted Questions
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 01:12PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 01:12PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 | May 30, 2024 | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 | May 30, 2024 | 97% | +2% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 09:51PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 09:51PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 09:51PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 09:51PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 | Jul 30, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 09:52PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 09:52PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 99% | 95% | +4% | +0% |