Bear

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2024 Season Stats

0.001334

Relative Brier Score

5

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 4 4 74 5 95
Comments 0 0 0 0 2
Questions Forecasted 4 4 35 5 49
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Bear made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (-1%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1% (-1%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99% (+3%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

iran israel tensions

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New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Bear made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (-1%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024

iran israel tensions

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
Bear earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Bear made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
99% (0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Bear earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
Bear earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster of the Month - Dec 2023

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Bear earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster of the Month - Nov 2023

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
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