Forecasted Questions
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2024 02:46AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 28, 2024 02:46AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 81% | -66% | -4% |
| No | 85% | 19% | +66% | +4% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 28, 2024 02:30AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 28, 2024 02:30AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49% | 55% | -6% | -6% |
| No | 51% | 45% | +6% | +6% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 03:32AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 27, 2024 03:32AM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29% | Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024 | May 27, 2024 | 12% | +17% | -4% |
| No | 71% | Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024 | May 27, 2024 | 88% | -17% | +4% |