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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 12, 2022 11:32PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 12, 2022 to Feb 12, 2023
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 12, 2022 11:32PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 12, 2022 to Feb 12, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
Why did Shanghai lock down? Because Xi needs to prove he has control of Shanghai. Does he? Internal conflicts inside the CCP... he has pissed off a lot of people, and he supposedly has had a brain aneurysm and refused western medicine. The emperor has raggedy clothes.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 23, 2022 04:34AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
May 23, 2022 to Nov 23, 2022
China does not have the capability to back up military aggression and Ukraine has made them further question their own ability to attack another country.
Files
They still have not confirmed the timing of the council, it is looking less and less likely. Plus, his health is not well and he has made a rash of bad decisions.
I'm not seeing this, but CCP isn't my area, and I'm worried we're all just running on "status quo" - an excellent heuristic that fails right where foresight is most needed: surprise.
I'm still forecasting 96% but want to elevate voices saying "No" and see what we might be missing.