Forecasted Questions
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2021 12:14AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 25, 2021 12:14AM UTC
(3 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 14% | 43% | 3% | +40% | -5% |
| Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 5% | 12% | -7% | +0% |
| More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 5% | 31% | -26% | +1% |
| More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 4% | 40% | -36% | +6% |
| More than 20% | 43% | 14% | +29% | -2% |
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 21, 2021 05:26AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 21, 2021 05:26AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 35% | -32% | -8% |