INFER Public

Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020?

Question Ends:
Jul 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 25, 2020 05:06AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 27, 2020 03:06AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36%		Answer was correct
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39%		Answer was incorrect
More than 39%		Answer was incorrect

Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2020 07:33PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2020 06:27PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2020 07:30PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 16, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 15, 2021 09:22PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $20		Answer was incorrect
Between $20 and $100, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $100 but less than or equal to $300		Answer was incorrect
More than $300 but less than or equal to $500		Answer was incorrect
More than $500 but less than or equal to $1000		Answer was incorrect
More than $1000		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 16, 2021 01:11PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2021 11:10PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5.5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%		Answer was incorrect
Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 12%		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2021 11:30PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.45%		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%		Answer was incorrect
More than 1.2%		Answer was incorrect

[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 08, 2021 12:50AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
0-10%		Answer was incorrect
10-20%		Answer was incorrect
20-30%		Answer was incorrect
30-40%		Answer was correct
40-50%		Answer was incorrect
50-60%		Answer was incorrect
60-70%		Answer was incorrect
70-80%		Answer was incorrect
80-90%		Answer was incorrect
90-100%		Answer was incorrect

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