henryj

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henryj
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New Prediction
henryj
made their 5th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Dec 28, 2022 02:01PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Nov 28, 2022 to Dec 28, 2022
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
henryj
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
7%
Less than 12,000
26%
More than or equal to 12,000 but less than 15,000
46%
More than or equal to 15,000 but less than 18,000
21%
More than or equal to 18,000

Just based on looking at previous years, I’d be really surprised if there were fewer than 12,000 — 2020 was an outlier in pretty much every category. 

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henryj
earned a new badge:

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New Prediction
henryj
made their 4th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Aug 3, 2022 10:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Jul 3, 2022 to Aug 3, 2022
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
henryj
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 5
1%
Between 5 and 9, inclusive
50%
Between 10 and 14, inclusive
42%
Between 15 and 19, inclusive
7%
More than or equal to 20
Why do you think you're right?

There have already been five crashes reported in June, so there cannot be fewer than five collisions. It doesn't say when the data was last updated, but--since I'm writing this on the 22nd, I'll assume the data is as of the 12th, what with the 10 day reporting requirement. Roughly extrapolating this over a whole month gives ~12.5 crashes.

Just based on my own look through the data, each month over the last nine appears to have crashes centered in the mid-teens. Since miles driven by autonomous vehicles are still on the rise, though, I'll err towards the higher end of that spectrum. 

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Why might you be wrong?

I've only really looked at prior rates and haven't accounted for any extenuating circumstances here. There could easily be something I've missed.

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henryj
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
henryj
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 200 million
0% (0%)
More than 200 million but less than 250 million
0% (0%)
Between 250 million and 300 million, inclusive
100% (0%)
More than 300 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
henryj
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jun 30, 2022 03:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
May 31, 2022 to Jun 30, 2022
Confirmed previous forecast
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