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Just based on looking at previous years, I’d be really surprised if there were fewer than 12,000 — 2020 was an outlier in pretty much every category.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
There have already been five crashes reported in June, so there cannot be fewer than five collisions. It doesn't say when the data was last updated, but--since I'm writing this on the 22nd, I'll assume the data is as of the 12th, what with the 10 day reporting requirement. Roughly extrapolating this over a whole month gives ~12.5 crashes.
Just based on my own look through the data, each month over the last nine appears to have crashes centered in the mid-teens. Since miles driven by autonomous vehicles are still on the rise, though, I'll err towards the higher end of that spectrum.
Why might you be wrong?
I've only really looked at prior rates and haven't accounted for any extenuating circumstances here. There could easily be something I've missed.