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New Prediction
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 29, 2022 02:16PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2022 to Dec 29, 2022
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 29, 2022 02:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2022 to Dec 29, 2022
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 29, 2022 02:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2022 to Dec 29, 2022
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-5%)
Yes
At this point it looks like Putin's regime is stable. Only real reason he might not be in office would be due to failing health.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 29, 2022 02:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(-7%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2022 to Jul 29, 2022
Correcting downward. Russian economy still going comparatively stable, Ruble is up, war in Ukraine continues to be a grind but generally Russians advance.
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