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New Prediction
Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Crowd forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-9%)
Yes, and it will pass
1%
(-9%)
Yes, and it will not pass
98%
(+18%)
No
Update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-42%)
Yes
Update to crowd forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes, and it will pass
10%
Yes, and it will not pass
80%
No
Based on the crowd forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Less than 50%
5%
(-16%)
More than or equal to 50% but less than 60%
14%
(-30%)
More than or equal to 60% but less than 70%
55%
(+33%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 80%
23%
(+13%)
More than or equal to 80%
Update based on crowd forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Less than or equal to 200 million
2%
(-23%)
More than 200 million but less than 250 million
3%
(-32%)
Between 250 million and 300 million, inclusive
95%
(+60%)
More than 300 million
Update based on current Crunchbase data
Files