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New Prediction
40% of all supercomputers in the TOP500 are Chinese (173), making them the top global owners of supercomputers. The USA has 149 in the top. This is the Nov '21 update of figures, which were 186 and 123 (respectively) the previous year.
Currently, the top supercomputer (Japanese) is 3x as powerful as the USA top supercomputer. The USA is obviously putting resources towards R&D (since number of top computers has increased), but it seems unlikely that it'll be this year