INFER Public

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2023 07:18PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	36%	88%	-52%	+51%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	48%	11%	+37%	-38%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	7%	1%	+6%	-8%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	5%	0%	+5%	-3%
More than or equal to 200	4%	0%	+4%	-1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2023 07:29PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	1%	+5%	-5%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2023 07:29PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	2%	2%	+0%	0%
Oman	9%	2%	+7%	+0%
Qatar	3%	2%	+1%	-1%
Saudi Arabia	12%	5%	+7%	-2%
Tunisia	2%	1%	+1%	+0%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2023 07:30PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	-2%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+2%

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2023 07:30PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2023 07:30PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	5%	1%	+4%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	10%	4%	+6%	-1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	85%	95%	-10%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2023 07:30PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	13%	8%	+5%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	6%	12%	-6%	+4%

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2023 05:34AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	0%	+1%	-1%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2023 05:34AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	4%	+0%	-1%
No	96%	96%	+0%	+1%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2023 01:35PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	15%	+30%	-26%
No	55%	85%	-30%	+26%

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