Forecasted Questions
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2022 06:32AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 23, 2022 06:32AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 5% | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 5% but less than 7% | 90% | 73% | +17% | -2% |
| More than or equal to 7% | 5% | 22% | -17% | +2% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
As of Jan 30, 2024 07:27PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2023 07:27PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Oct 30, 2023 07:27PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Oct 30, 2023 to Apr 30, 2024 | Jan 30, 2024 | 0% | +10% | -1% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
As of Dec 26, 2023 05:20AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2023 05:20AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 26, 2023 05:20AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 85% | Nov 26, 2023 to May 26, 2024 | Dec 26, 2023 | 16% | +69% | -68% |
| No | 15% | Nov 26, 2023 to May 26, 2024 | Dec 26, 2023 | 84% | -69% | +68% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
As of Dec 26, 2023 05:22AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2023 05:22AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 26, 2023 05:22AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | Nov 26, 2023 to May 26, 2024 | Dec 26, 2023 | 11% | +5% | -7% |
| No | 84% | Nov 26, 2023 to May 26, 2024 | Dec 26, 2023 | 89% | -5% | +7% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
As of Dec 26, 2023 05:31AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2023 05:31AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 26, 2023 05:31AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | Nov 26, 2023 to May 26, 2024 | Dec 26, 2023 | 6% | +5% | +3% |
| No | 89% | Nov 26, 2023 to May 26, 2024 | Dec 26, 2023 | 94% | -5% | -3% |
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 days ago)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2023 05:34AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 26, 2023 05:34AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | -1% |
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2023 05:34AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 26, 2023 05:34AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 0% | +2% | +0% |