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Definitions |
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Active Forecaster
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
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Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
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Probability
Answer
60%
(+60%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Correcting my last forecast
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Why might you be wrong?
Correcting my last forecast
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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Here is an excellent article: https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220724-brothers-of-italy-the-far-right-party-on-the-cusp-of-power
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Why might you be wrong?
This is not my expertise.
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Why do you think you're right?
UPDATE
Why might you be wrong?