probahilliby

Prepared to dip lower after reading my Pro teammates' comments and forecasts. However, it's my judgement that 43% seems like a healthy compromise right now before reducing further. Will drop further once the crowd median drops maybe another 10 or so percentage points.

Forecast was rather high and the new clarification changes things. Decreasing after having read the clarifications. The collectively component of the resolution criteria is a stretch in such a short-term, so chances should be lowered even more so. It's almost as if the the resolution criteria would imply a collective NATO effort to stand against Russia or some kind of campaign to smear or scold or hold the parties accountable, which is unlikely right now given it seems there are enough diversity of stances among members involved that no unifying agreement that would resolve this question could resolve it YES, if that makes sense.

Routine time update.

Small tweaks. Little more confident in fourth Bin calling for circa 2.9 and 3.2. Notch down on last bin. Notch down on first bin. Slight notch up on second bin.

I think there's a huge upside potential here given tariffs. I found it as a surprisal - but not really - that inflation is rising again. More solid proof that more weight needs to be on higher bins. My assumption is I'm going to be slightly underestimating here, but then again things tend to regress to the mean. Perhaps not weighing outside view as much as I should.

Time update.

Slight tweak to probabilities.

I'm reducing my steel forecast by a tad bit to be more in line with the crowd, but I still remain substantially higher on all bins. You can read my previous rationale for some insight into my thinking.

Routine update. Gaining more confidence given recent data.