Routine update.
-0.142283
Relative Brier Score
53
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 12 | 24 | 950 | 53 | 1009 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 55 | 4 | 70 |
Questions Forecasted | 11 | 16 | 90 | 27 | 92 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 89 | 5 | 100 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
67%
(-6%)
Yes
33%
(+6%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
89%
(+21%)
Less than $90
11%
(-8%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(-6%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(-4%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(-3%)
More than or equal to $120
Routine update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
Routine update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+7%)
Less than or equal to 49
20%
(+3%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
2%
(-2%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
2%
(-6%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
1%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 200
Routine update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(+3%)
Yes
96%
(-3%)
No
Adjusting up a tad bit for overconfidence.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45%
(+29%)
Yes
Mar 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2024
55%
(-29%)
No
Mar 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2024
Answering 45%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
73%
Yes
27%
No
Answering 73%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
73%
Yes
27%
No
Answering 73%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+8%)
Yes
25%
(-8%)
No
Answering 75%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Mar 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
98%
No
Mar 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
Answering 2%.
Files