probahilliby

Metrics of this war seem to be plateaued or, shall I say, uninteresting for the last several months, so it would be quite a big thing to bet against this status quo.

Hedging toward crowd a bit but maintaining a lower probability. I think my own analysis would be correct ~7% of the time, but I also think it's more reliable to hedge here. I'm basing off my thinking on the mere observation that Israel chose not to strike nuclear facilities in its latest major attack in Iran's territory.

One way I could see this increasing quite significantly is if Iran announces or is found to be increasing nuclear production? This could incentivize those who do not want Iran to have nukes. Then again, it's more complicated than this simple IF-Iran-does-this, THEN-Israel-will-do-this. Much more complex.

Reducing as the cost of war seems too high right now for both countries, with each choosing limited retaliatory strikes although at a rapid pace. I think each country is taking a lot of pride in the recent strikes against each other, and the thirst for punches has been quenched until it's time to kick the can again.

The world is unstable, but I don't see this particular system to be so unstable enough that it requires vastly updating toward YES. Perhaps all we are seeing is a lot of noise to be downweighted.

Answering higher at 92% upon fresh look at data.

+1 confidence.

+2% confidence.

Confidence increasing. See latest ctsats and Michał comments.

Routine update.