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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
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Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
As others have pointed out in a similar manner, quantum computing development is not yet in a phase to be effectively used for an attack of any sort. However, as this research area is key for the security of the future, I find the possibility of an attack to steal research or similar much more likely. Still, overall the chance of this happening is extremely slim.
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Why might you be wrong?
A state could secretly develop advanced QC capabilities for offensive purposes. Alternatively, QC research might be an even higher priority than it is considered today (especially in case of a major scientific breakthrough).
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
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