Confirmed previous forecast
-0.005696
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
As others have pointed out in a similar manner, quantum computing development is not yet in a phase to be effectively used for an attack of any sort. However, as this research area is key for the security of the future, I find the possibility of an attack to steal research or similar much more likely. Still, overall the chance of this happening is extremely slim.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A state could secretly develop advanced QC capabilities for offensive purposes. Alternatively, QC research might be an even higher priority than it is considered today (especially in case of a major scientific breakthrough).
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The time window is extremely small at this stage. It seems that labelling images is way easier compared to text-based posts. Moreover, some posts can have an element of AI assistence (e.g. grammar, improved wording, ...) that is only beneficial to the readers. This means that the potential for false positives (in case the goal is to limit the spread of malicious AI fuelled messaging) much higher.
Why might you be wrong?
It is possible that some process could be under way, but I think at this stage it would be leaked (e.g. through discussions with the community, experts, ...) in some way, as it has a major impact on the very large user bases of these social platforms.