Last seven days and there are a few dollars space before 90 is hit.
-0.00638
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
88%
(+13%)
Less than $90
12%
(-13%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-1%)
Yes
91%
(+1%)
No
9 months left now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(-9%)
Less than $90
25%
(+9%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Destruction of some Russian oil refineries probably played major part in the recent price increase, but I'd imagine that it's now included in the price of ~87 and it's still quite unlikely to reach 90+ in 12 days.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
84%
(+10%)
Less than $90
16%
(-10%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
81-84 USD for the past month, and 21 days left.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
(-1%)
Less than $90
26%
(+2%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
The price is 82.5 USD now. The stableness of price in the recent months seems uncharacteristic for oil. The frequency of fast enough changes to rise over 90 USD seems to be around 1/4 based on a quick look at the graphs.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(+1%)
Yes
90%
(-1%)
No
Median forecast has dropped from 10 % to 8 % in 30 days, but there are still 10 months left.
Prohibiting Chinese from using USA-based cloud computing seems like a step towards direction that could end up Microsoft AI lab leaving China.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Less than $90
24%
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
1%
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
More than or equal to $120
Why do you think you're right?
77.3 USD now,
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The crude oil price is quite volatile, so even a short spike in price could lead to higher bucket for the question. In the last autumn, the price increased from 2023-08-23 to 2023-09-27 83.2 -> 96.6. That could happen again, for example because Suez Canal situation or the ongoing wars.
Top 3 countries where oil comes from are USA, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, I don't know their current situation well.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may have some plans for taking more profit for oil.
In addition to the OPEC countries, Canada also has large oil reserves. What's their short-term plan?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
Yes
91%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Median forecast is 10 %. I read the upvoted and most extreme rationales. The current office location probably benefits China more than USA, but in general, foreign companies might have the idea of improving the worker rights or other things from the inside. Having influential people in Chinese office might be worth more than the risks it brings.
China is famous for its intellectual property thefts and industrial espionage. It's relatively small business area for Microsoft as the software piracy is more a rule than an exception there.
Easiest way to employ Chinese professionals may be letting them work in their home country, (but experiences aboard may also entice them). Having the opportunity does lower the bar to join Microsoft.
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Why might you be wrong?
How would Microsoft shut down the AI office in China? They currently have 300 staff + 300 "visiting staff"? so taking it slowly would be possible. 11 months is a long time, it might be possible to resolve this question as yes even in that case.
The company presentative didn't outright deny in clear words that they don't shut down the office this year, but on the other hand, would they, even if they plan to?
Files
85-87.5 in the last 9 days, and currently at 85.6.