RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM	Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?	0.700425
Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	0.382769
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	-0.016029
Jul 1, 2023 04:00AM	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	0.013827
Apr 20, 2023 03:23PM	What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?	0.45766
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022?	0.064271
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.015648
Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	0.065973
Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	0.301355
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM	Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?	0.028009
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM	Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021)	0.042612
Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	0.146279
Jan 1, 2022 01:49PM	Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?	0.332327
Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.075009
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.054424
Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.072477
Apr 1, 2021 04:51PM	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.014084