Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 59 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 28, 2023 02:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(-69%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2023 to Nov 28, 2023
Current developments point towards a prolonged conflict.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-59%)
Yes
Imran Khan's chances are close to nil.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 14, 2023 01:44AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
Yes
Oct 14, 2023 to Nov 14, 2023
Although the current situation points towards an Israeli attack as a response to the Hamas atrocities, there are factors indicating that US will not let this conflict continue or grow further out in the region.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
Corruption charges are not a factor that previously has prevented candidates to run an win elections, and there are few other potential candidates with the level of political experience that Khan has.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Recent developments indicate that Russia will escalate and intensify its operations as a reaction to the US House resolution to provide a substantial aid package to Ukraine. Operational effects from implementing this aid package might take about 6 months to ramp up, so intensified Russian aggression can be projected for the coming months.
Why might you be wrong?
Accelerated implementation of the US Aid package, reinforcing Ukrainian defense capabilities and enabling Ukrainian offensive measures to deter Russian action.