Updating
1.777773
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
695
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 41 | 402 | 238 | 2602 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 34 | 32 | 973 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 38 | 81 | 58 | 334 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 159 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-4%)
Less than or equal to 500
23%
(-5%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
50%
(+18%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
23%
(-5%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
2%
(-4%)
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Less than 250
0%
(-3%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
10%
(-13%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
65%
(+20%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
25%
(-3%)
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
Updating
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than 250
3%
(0%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
23%
(0%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
45%
(0%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
28%
(0%)
More than or equal to 550
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 500
28%
(0%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
32%
(0%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
28%
(0%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
6%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Less than 600
12%
(-18%)
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
30%
(-6%)
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
30%
(0%)
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
26%
(+24%)
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
Updating
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+20%)
Less than or equal to 1
20%
(-20%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Updating
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
93%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Updating
Why might you be wrong?