Confirm previous forecast
0.37987
Relative Brier Score
163
Forecasts
17
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 28 | 568 | 163 | 2101 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 21 | 5 | 80 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 22 | 108 | 53 | 281 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 8 | 54 | 17 | 145 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
May 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025
92%
(0%)
No
May 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
72%
(0%)
Yes
28%
(0%)
No
Confirm previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
May 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
May 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025
Confirm previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
May 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2024
Confirm previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(+14%)
Less than or equal to 49
2%
(-14%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
1%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
5%
(-9%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
94%
(+10%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
1%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 3000
increasing 2250-2999 bin
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
For the moment, this looks unlikely.
Russian are far from Kyiv, artillery cannot be used.
Russians have already attacked Kyiv with missiles/drones without reaching this level of injuries/casualties, especially since more air defense capabilities are on the way.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
One or few missiles/drones on a very dense area in Kyiv could still lead to 100 casualties.
Files
Confirm previous forecast