INFER Public

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 06:25PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	1%	8%	-7%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	9%	11%	-2%	-1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 08, 2024 07:32PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	20%	4%	+16%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	80%	95%	-15%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 08, 2024 07:32PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	May 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2024	Jun 8, 2024	3%	-3%	-2%
No	100%	May 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2024	Jun 8, 2024	97%	+3%	+2%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 01:28PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	May 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025	Aug 13, 2024	9%	+5%	-4%
No	86%	May 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025	Aug 13, 2024	91%	-5%	+4%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 01:30PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	May 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025	Aug 13, 2024	6%	+3%	+1%
No	91%	May 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025	Aug 13, 2024	94%	-3%	-1%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 01:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	May 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025	Jun 13, 2024	16%	+9%	-4%
No	75%	May 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025	Jun 13, 2024	84%	-9%	+4%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	18%	May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024	Jun 13, 2024	13%	+5%	-3%
No	82%	May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024	Jun 13, 2024	87%	-5%	+3%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	81%	+9%	+0%
No	10%	19%	-9%	+0%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024	Jun 13, 2024	18%	+2%	-3%
No	80%	May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024	Jun 13, 2024	82%	-2%	+3%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 01:35PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024	Jun 13, 2024	3%	-2%	+0%
No	99%	May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024	Jun 13, 2024	97%	+2%	+0%

Jim

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