Trump's frustration and threats to "walk away" from peace efforts indicate the conflict will likely continue without major escalation or resolution by late 2025.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(+14%)
Less than or equal to 49
30%
(+15%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
40%
(-10%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
13%
(-17%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
2%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Peace talks could actually succeed or spectacularly fail by late 2025.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
It's basically math at this point. We're already at the end of May 2025, and Min Aung Hlaing literally announced in March that elections are planned for December 2025 at the earliest. Plus, the junta only controls about a third of the country and could only conduct their census in less than half the townships. Hard to hold a "national" election when you don't control the nation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe Min Aung Hlaing will wake up next week and think "You know what? Let's just wing it!" and hold surprise elections in the few areas where his forces can still show their faces without getting shot at.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
Less than or equal to 1349
30%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
12%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
2%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
1%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
The Texas outbreak that drove most of 2025's cases is clearly fizzling out - only 1 new case since May 23rd is a dramatic slowdown from the explosive growth earlier this year. We're basically riding the tail end of this outbreak plus whatever sporadic cases pop up from travelers and smaller community outbreaks. Summer might help slow transmission patterns too. 1,046 cases + gradual decline + sporadic additions = probably landing in 1,200-1,400.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could be another surprise outbreak brewing in some unvaccinated community . Or maybe measles decides to go full chaos mode. Also possible that "fewer than 10 actively infectious" in Texas is CDC-speak for "we're about to see round two"
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
48%
Less than 30 days
16%
30 days
5%
31-60 days
2%
61-90 days
29%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Good chance an agreement will fail immediately. It could also last the negotiated 30 days, if that's what they agree on, but break right after as planned. If it last longer than 30 days, I think it might stick.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This whole thing is a mess and I wouldn't trust anything anyone says.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Less than or equal to 49
15%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
50%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
4%
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
The current number is 67 and while it's trending down, I don't see it dropping super low despite Trump's win. Russia's still being aggressive with cyber attacks and Germany's literally reopening bomb shelters. They're clearly still worried - their spy chiefs just came out warning about increased Russian threats. Trump's win might actually make Germans more nervous about NATO's reliability. Most likely we'll see it stay in the 60s or maybe drift into the 70s, but really dramatic shifts either way seem unlikely unless something major happens.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be totally wrong if Trump and Putin work out some kind of deal that really changes the situation in Europe that could make the numbers drop faster than I expect. Or on the flip side, if Russia does something really aggressive like mess with the Baltics, we could see those numbers shoot way up. Also worth noting that regular Germans might just get tired of worrying about Russia if the war drags on without major changes, especially if they're dealing with problems at home. Maybe I'm underestimating how much German politics could shift on this whole issue.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Putin's playbook is to use ceasefires for regrouping, not genuine peace. His war aims (complete control of Ukraine) haven't changed, he just needs a breather. Russia would "falsely accuse Ukraine of ceasefire violations" to justify breaking it
Why might you be wrong?
Trump's ego is now on the line - if Putin makes him look like a fool, Trump might actually follow through on those tariff threats (and Putin knows Trump holds grudges like a mob boss). Or maybe I'm underestimating how exhausted both militaries actually are. Alternatively, I could be totally wrong in the other direction - maybe Putin breaks it on day 2 just to mess with everyone's heads, that would be very on-brand for him.