Confirmed previous forecast
-0.748238
Relative Brier Score
21
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 42 | 10 | 97 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 17 | 6 | 38 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+62%)
Less than or equal to 49
0%
(-48%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(-14%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Hedging
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
December 1 is a long time away.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 9, 2024 06:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
99%
No
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
"Hezbollah is well served by maintaining the current level of engagement" strikes me as the only realistic scenario.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A larger, regional or global war.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-39%)
Yes
Crowd has shifted towards no, I'm following the recent crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Too much instability.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Would they close it? Nah. If there was enough pressure, the diplomatic approach would be to leave it open but limit what goes on there.
Files