From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya?

Started Aug 18, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Kenya for a given time period: 
  • Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates. 
  • Select the following event types:
    • Battles
    • Violence against civilians
    • Explosions/Remote violence
    • Riots
    • Protests
  • Select “Kenya” from the Region filter. 
  • Click “Apply Filters” 
  • Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”

Additional Reading:

Question clarification
Issued on 03/28/23 05:59pm
ACLED updates its database weekly on Mondays and Tuesdays. This question will be resolved on or shortly after 16 August 2023 to allow time for events in late July to be reported.
Resolution Notes

ACLED reported 861 fatalities from conflicts and political violence in Kenya from 1 Aug 2022 to 31 July 2023.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.22%
No 98.78%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 62
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 485
Average for questions older than 6 months: 214
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00901
2.
-0.00631
3.
-0.005247
4.
-0.00425
5.
-0.004239

Consensus Trend

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