Started Apr 20, 2021 12:20PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Partnered with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Related question. A related question on Good Judgment Open asks about the chance of a U.S. boycott.

Context. The 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled to occur in Beijing between February 4 and 20, 2022.

In recent months, countries, companies, and athletes have faced rising pressure to boycott the Beijing Olympics because of China's treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang (CNBCEconomist, Guardian). More than 180 organizations have called to boycott the Beijing Olympics (BBC, Economist). Tensions rose further following sanctions by the UK, U.S., Canada, and the EU against China for "serious human rights abuses" (CNN). The Biden administration has floated the idea of a boycott (Financial Times) and has reportedly discussed a joint boycott with U.S. allies (AP News).

Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (Montreal GazetteHistory.com). The U.S boycotted the Moscow Olympics to protest the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, and sixty-five nations refused to participate in the games (U.S State Gov). Most of the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa boycotted the Summer Olympics in Montreal to protest the attendance of New Zealand after the latter sent its rugby team to play against the team from apartheid South Africa (U.S State Gov).

Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or an official announcement that a G7 country is boycotting the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the U.S.

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Question clarification
Issued on 04/26/21 05:29pm
A diplomatic boycott -- i.e., not sending government officials -- does not count. For purposes of this question, a boycott involves a country's decision not to send its athletes to compete.
Issued on 05/21/21 03:48pm
A user asked whether it would count if one or more G7 countries persuaded the IOC to move the Olympics to a different location. If one or more G7 countries states that it would not otherwise attend, then yes; otherwise, no.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 15.07%
No 84.93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 193
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 524
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.023
2.
-0.022
3.
-0.022
4.
-0.022
5.
-0.021

Consensus Trend

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