Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?

Started Sep 01, 2021 11:00AM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2022 11:00AM UTC

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post

Related questions. This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—has been published three times before: for the first half of 2021, the second half of 2021, and September 2021-February 2022. The final consensus forecasts for those questions were 11%, 14%, and 14%.

Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area.

In past iterations of this question, several forecasters have analyzed the historical frequency of conflict of the type being forecasted here.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.

Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. 

Question format. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is forecasting September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.

* * *

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 

Question clarification
Issued on 05/06/22 07:40pm
Late last season, we introduced Continuous Risk questions to the platform. After scores were calculated for the first continuous questions, we reviewed the scoring mechanism and determined that some things about the way these questions were scored needed correction. The following issues have now been resolved, and scores for these questions have been updated. 1. Teams did not receive a score for the scored periods for this question. Now, team scores will include scores for this question if team members have submitted a forecast. 2. Forecasts made at the end of a scoring period were not carrying over to the next period, and the user would not receive a score until they made a new forecast, even if the forecast window extended beyond the end of the scoring period. Now, forecasts expire at the end of their forecast window unless they are updated. 3. Forecasts were scored over their forecast window and were continuing to be scored in the following scoring period without allowing the user to modify their forecast. Now, scoring is limited to the forecast window. Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions about this change.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.79%
No 98.21%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 197
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 907
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Aug 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC - Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC 18%
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC - Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC 13%
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC - Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC 16%
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC - Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC 16%
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC - Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC 14%
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC - Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC 15%
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC - Sep 01, 2022 11:00AM UTC 2%

Consensus Trend

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username