How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?

Started Aug 24, 2021 01:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.

Related question. We previously published versions of this question—asking about the amount of money raised over a six-month period—forecasting the second half of 2020 and the second half of 2021. You can view those forecasts here and here.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. 

The historical and forecasted values are a four-quarter rolling sum. This question resolves based on data available 30 days after the end of each period. The question—and the graph below—therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period. 


The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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Question clarification
Issued on 08/19/22 08:22pm
The 2022 H1 time period was resolved incorrectly at $39.1 billion last week. Please note that this number has been corrected to $77.3 billion and forecasts for this time period have been re-scored.
This question has ended, but is awaiting resolution by an admin.

Final Crowd Forecast
Time Period 90% chance to be above Crowd Forecast 90% chance to be below
2021 H2 32.33 54.17 78.57
2022 H1 39.31 58.34 85.33
2022 H2 41.83 64.4 89.12
2023 H1 46.33 70.27 98.03
2023 H2 45.73 72.31 103.94
2024 H1 47.4 75.94 107.16
2024 H2 48.16 80.57 113.3
2025 H1 52.35 86.27 121.62
2025 H2 60.78 89.4 118.11
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