Started Aug 24, 2021 01:35PM UTC   •   Closing Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC

How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.

Related question. We previously published versions of this question—asking about revenue over a six-month period—forecasting the first half of 2021 and the second half of 2021. You can view those forecasts here and here.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. The historical and forecasted values are a four-quarter rolling sum. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period. 

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The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.

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Current Crowd Forecast
Time Period 90% chance to be above Crowd Forecast 90% chance to be below
2021 H2 1046.68 1474.25 2358.78
2022 H1 1204.89 1576.46 2250.9
2022 H2 1187.06 1637.25 2414.71
2023 H1 1251.08 1741.96 2686.79
2023 H2 1291.27 1860.31 2961.56
2024 H1 1344.65 1974.83 3271.52
2024 H2 1340.8 2003.89 3045.25
2025 H1 1376.06 1980.6 2768.42

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