Started Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC

Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?

Context. On September 19, the People’s Republic of China Ministry of Commerce released the provisions of an “Unreliable Entity List” that would restrict the ability of listed companies to conduct trade or investment with China. Listed company employees would also be restricted from entering or residing in China. According to state media outlet the Global Times, listed entities might include U.S. companies such as Apple, Cisco or Qualcomm. Reporting by the Wall Street Journal indicates that Chinese leadership is divided over whether to implement the entity list before the U.S. election in November.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. A company  is a "U.S. company" if the United States is its principal place of business. 

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 14.90%
No 85.10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 106
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 158
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.058
2.
-0.046
3.
-0.037
4.
-0.036
5.
-0.035

Consensus Trend

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