didn't happen in april, still not happening in may.
0.346711
Relative Brier Score
105
Forecasts
19
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 32 | 333 | 105 | 1098 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 164 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 23 | 57 | 28 | 167 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 229 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-5%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to May 25, 2024
95%
(+5%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to May 25, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(-7%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
92%
(+7%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 23, 2024 to Oct 23, 2024
92%
(0%)
No
Apr 23, 2024 to Oct 23, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+70%)
Yes
0%
(-70%)
No
already approved in House
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+13%)
Less than or equal to 499
1%
(-13%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
just no time left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
86%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 499
14%
(0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
You are right that I am being too conservative given the time left. Basically I consider it possible for a 50+ increase of incidents on any given weekend given inherent potential instability, defeating the recent repression+recovery calm. But the storm is still to come.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+29%)
Yes
70%
(-29%)
No
A House vote over the weekend, then a few days left (2?) for the Senate to vote...
The proposed text? https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20240415/APRIL2024_UKRAINE_xml.pdf
Files
there have always been speculations, but now they may be acting on them:
Speculation Mounts On Iran Leader's
Healthhttps://www.iranintl.com/en/202404091961