Confirmed previous forecast
0.332305
Relative Brier Score
125
Forecasts
68
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 30 | 334 | 110 | 1103 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 23 | 10 | 164 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 22 | 57 | 28 | 167 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 32 | 19 | 229 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
1%
(0%)
2024 Q1
1%
(0%)
2024 Q2
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17%
(+2%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
83%
(-2%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
there have always been speculations, but now they may be acting on them:
Speculation Mounts On Iran Leader's
Healthhttps://www.iranintl.com/en/202404091961
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-5%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to May 25, 2024
95%
(+5%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to May 25, 2024
didn't happen in april, still not happening in may.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(-7%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
92%
(+7%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
passage of time
Files
lowering as the next six months seem to provide little calm