INFER Public

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 08:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	57%	-7%	-37%
No	50%	43%	+7%	+37%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	13%	-8%	-2%
No	95%	87%	+8%	+2%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	8%	-5%	+0%
No	97%	92%	+5%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	86%	56%	+30%	-2%
No	14%	44%	-30%	+2%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	4%	6%	-2%	-6%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	96%	93%	+3%	+7%
More than or equal to 3000	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2024 05:13PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	4%	+1%	-1%
No	95%	96%	-1%	+1%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 08:03PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	5%	-5%	-1%
No	100%	95%	+5%	+1%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	99%	99%	+0%	+3%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	1%	1%	+0%	-3%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 2000	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 23, 2024 06:27PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Apr 23, 2024 to Oct 23, 2024	May 23, 2024	17%	-9%	+3%
No	92%	Apr 23, 2024 to Oct 23, 2024	May 23, 2024	83%	+9%	-3%

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