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Hinterhunter

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Power Forecaster - Apr 2024

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Forecasted Questions

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2021 01:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	35%	-10%	-6%

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2021 04:24PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2021 11:14PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2021 11:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than -0.25	4%	14%	-10%	+0%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive	24%	31%	-7%	+0%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25	43%	33%	+10%	+1%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5	24%	17%	+7%	+0%
More than 0.5	5%	4%	+1%	+0%

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2022 05:37PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Apple	50%	48%	+2%	+9%
Microsoft	20%	22%	-2%	+3%
Alphabet (Google)	5%	13%	-8%	-2%
Amazon	12%	10%	+2%	-4%
Tesla	2%	3%	-1%	-3%
Meta (Facebook)	2%	1%	+1%	-2%
Other	9%	2%	+7%	-1%

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2022 06:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 28, 2022 02:50PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 11, 2022 07:20PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2022 03:01PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Intel	1%	16%	-15%	-8%
Samsung	70%	53%	+17%	-11%
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)	29%	30%	-1%	+19%
Other	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the European Union and United Kingdom in 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2022 08:50PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 7%	46%	43%	+3%	+3%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 10%	51%	53%	-2%	-2%
More than or equal to 10%	3%	4%	-1%	-1%