71st
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Hinterhunter

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.001351
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? -0.000002
Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024? 0.355562
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024) 0.099812
Apr 01, 2024 04:00PM UTC What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024? -0.011746
Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024) -0.014732
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? 0.017627
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation? -0.3709
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? 0.003285
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan? 0.0
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record? 0.01161
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador? -0.003739
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? 0.094802
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023? 0.182164
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? 0.000091
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? -0.01968
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023? -0.030171
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? 0.054181
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? -0.029992
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? -0.035371
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