Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?

Started Jan 12, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC

The chief of Myanmar’s military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, declared that the country would hold elections by August 2023 as part of a broader pledge to restore democracy in the country (Deutsche Welle). If held, these elections would be the first since Myanmar’s military took power in a coup in 2021 (The Guardian). 

Resolution Criteria:
This question will only resolve once voting has begun for a nationwide general election (including early voting) or the 31 December 2023 deadline has passed. It will not resolve on an official announcement of an election date. This question will resolve as "yes" if election voting occurs anywhere in the country, even if voting is cancelled in some locations.

Additional Reading: 

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.03%
No 99.97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 86
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 716
Average for questions older than 6 months: 212
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.22522
2.
-0.205813
3.
-0.186646
4.
-0.179906
5.
-0.140487

Consensus Trend

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