From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?

Started Jan 12, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Mexico for a given time period: 
  • Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates. 
  • Select “Violence against civilians” from the event type filter.
  • Select “Mexico” from the Region filter. 
  • Click “Apply Filters” 
  • Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”

Fatality counts from previous years are below:



Additional Reading: 
Resolution Notes

ACLED recorded 5,656 fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 6,000 99%
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive 1%
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive 0%
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive 0%
More than or equal to 9,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 494
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.085
2.
-0.081
3.
-0.08
4.
-0.07
5.
-0.069

Consensus Trend

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