What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?
Closed Feb 22, 2022 09:59PM UTC
Climate change is making droughts more frequent, severe and pervasive (NASA) and is one of the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Indicators. In January 2022, over 36% of the continental United States was experiencing severe drought or worse, according to the US Drought Monitor. The Western United States has been at particular risk (New York Times) with a majority of the region experiencing severe drought over the past year.
Question will be resolved based on the data available at the US Drought Monitor at 5pm ET on 22 February 2022.
"Severe drought or worse" refers to a U.S. Drought Monitor classification of D2-D4 (severe, extreme, or exceptional drought).
Question clarification
We will be using the drought monitor data labeled February 22nd data to resolve the question. If the data for the 22nd isn't available for when the question closes, then the question will be closed but pending resolution until that data is online.
Drought classification D2-D4 was 36.28 per data released for 2022-02-22.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 33.0 | 2% | |
| Between 33.0 and 35.5, inclusive | 25% | |
| More than 35.5 but less than 36.5 | 42% | |
| Between 36.5 and 39.0, inclusive | 29% | |
| More than 39.0 | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 43 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 59 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 100 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 210 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
