Enhancing decision making with crowdsourced forecasting
Warfighters, the intelligence community, and policy analysts across government confront complex questions that test their best analytical techniques. RFI delivers collective, diverse insights from a global community of RAND analysts and external forecasters to augment decision analysis.
Join our forecasting community and directly inform U.S. government policymaking
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FROM THE BLOG
Mitigating Emerging Human Intelligence Challenges with Forecasting | Jun 9, 2025
How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security.
Ukraine Ceasefire on the Horizon? | May 9, 2025
Insights from RFI, Glimt, and Metaculus collaboration.
Explore RFI’s public forecasting community
Engage with a diverse, global community of fellow forecasters and hone your own critical thinking and reasoning skills.
TRENDING QUESTIONS |
Forecasts in Past Week |
Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
|
83 |
96% |
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Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? |
43 |
2% |
|
39 |
|
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|
39 |
62% |
|
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Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025? |
38 |
2% |
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Be at the vanguard of forecasting efforts in government
“Forecasting forces me to assess my own biases going into an issue. I’m also constantly surprised by the ways the other forecasters think about factors going into their forecasts -- it is so easy to get trapped in our epistemic bubbles and crowd forecasting helps reorient our thinking.”
— Fiona Kastel, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation ("3ie")
“I learn more than I ever thought I would about some of the most important issues facing the U.S., while also influencing decisions on the same topics.”
— Anthony Cordetti, Cambridge Associates
