Enhancing decision making with crowdsourced forecasting
Warfighters, the intelligence community, and policy analysts across government confront complex questions that test their best analytical techniques. RFI delivers collective, diverse insights from a global community of RAND analysts and external forecasters to augment decision analysis.
Join our forecasting community and directly inform U.S. government policymaking
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RFI PERSPECTIVES
AI Is Learning to Predict the Future | Time Magazine
A spotlight on some of the challenges and work being done to integrate AI into the mission of the RAND Forecasting Initiative.
Mitigating Emerging Human Intelligence Challenges with Forecasting | RFI Blog
How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security.
Explore RFI’s public forecasting community
Engage with a diverse, global community of fellow forecasters and hone your own critical thinking and reasoning skills.
TRENDING QUESTIONS |
Forecasts in Past Week |
Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
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30 |
2% |
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Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027? |
25 |
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Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025? |
25 |
1% |
|
24 |
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24 |
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Be at the vanguard of forecasting efforts in government
“Forecasting forces me to assess my own biases going into an issue. I’m also constantly surprised by the ways the other forecasters think about factors going into their forecasts -- it is so easy to get trapped in our epistemic bubbles and crowd forecasting helps reorient our thinking.”
— Fiona Kastel, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation ("3ie")
“I learn more than I ever thought I would about some of the most important issues facing the U.S., while also influencing decisions on the same topics.”
— Anthony Cordetti, Cambridge Associates
