Enhancing decision making with crowdsourced forecasting
Warfighters, the intelligence community, and policy analysts across government confront complex questions that test their best analytical techniques. RFI delivers collective, diverse insights from a global community of RAND analysts and external forecasters to augment decision analysis.
Join our forecasting community and directly inform U.S. government policymaking
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FROM THE BLOG
Mitigating Emerging Human Intelligence Challenges with Forecasting | Jun 9, 2025
How probabilistic forecasting and advanced open-source intelligence (OSINT) can help fill critical gaps for U.S. national security.
Ukraine Ceasefire on the Horizon? | May 9, 2025
Insights from RFI, Glimt, and Metaculus collaboration.
Explore RFI’s public forecasting community
Engage with a diverse, global community of fellow forecasters and hone your own critical thinking and reasoning skills.
TRENDING QUESTIONS |
Forecasts in Past Week |
Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
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44 |
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41 |
1% |
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Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025? |
38 |
1% |
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Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? |
36 |
2% |
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36 |
5% |
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“Forecasting forces me to assess my own biases going into an issue. I’m also constantly surprised by the ways the other forecasters think about factors going into their forecasts -- it is so easy to get trapped in our epistemic bubbles and crowd forecasting helps reorient our thinking.”
— Fiona Kastel, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation ("3ie")
“I learn more than I ever thought I would about some of the most important issues facing the U.S., while also influencing decisions on the same topics.”
— Anthony Cordetti, Cambridge Associates
