I am going down, as we discussed during today's Pro Forecasters Team call it would take tremendous international pressure (political and economical) to make Israel go for a ceasefire with Hamas that fast (h/t @PeterStamp ). Using backcasting we discussed what could lead into that state of event (h/t Trent). I think the reason for such a preasure would have to be an extreem escalation so that the world and especially the US would want to deescalate quickly.