I am going down, as we discussed during today's Pro Forecasters Team call it would take tremendous international pressure (political and economical) to make Israel go for a ceasefire with Hamas that fast (h/t @PeterStamp ). Using backcasting we discussed what could lead into that state of event (h/t Trent). I think the reason for such a preasure would have to be an extreem escalation so that the world and especially the US would want to deescalate quickly.
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month?
![](https://www.infer-pub.com/rails/active_storage/representations/redirect/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBcjNDIiwiZXhwIjoiMjAyNC0wOC0wM1QwOTozMDoxOC42NTZaIiwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--baf065d1c55960ba2ca071edbfb72191492c00a8/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaDdCem9MWm05eWJXRjBTU0lJY0c1bkJqb0dSVlE2RW5KbGMybDZaVjkwYjE5bWFYUmJCMmtCK21rQitnPT0iLCJleHAiOm51bGwsInB1ciI6InZhcmlhdGlvbiJ9fQ==--785418758bf2c10371d5bae997efd5edbf9a23b6/Michal_Dubrawski's_INFER_avatar_final2.png)
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2023 10:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-5%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2023 to Nov 30, 2023
Files