Using the base rate data presented by @michal_dubrawski and @ctsats, I restrict the window from 2013 onwards, where we see a big shift in the number being discovered.
Using this obtain an average rate of 5.72 per year, and applying a Poisson model a 68% probability that 5 or more will be discovered in 2024.
I also experimented with using the Laplace succession rule, and found a 62% probability, but I feel that the Poisson model is more applicable here so I will go with that - I don't expect significant changes in the underlying driving factors on exoplanet discovery.
I also investigated the relationship between the number of exoplanets discovered and the number of potentially habitable exoplanets discovered, but this seems very unclear, so I don't consider the potential driving force of this:
Factors that could move the number up: - Perhaps we'll see increased use of AI in identifying potentially habitable exoplanets - I am unsure what the current situation here is
Factors that could move the number down: - If the low hanging fruits within the reach of current detection equipment are all picked - this seems unlikely to me as the galaxy is very big
- If the knowledge of what is potentially habitable changes, I think in the short-term this is likely to restrict the number of planets we consider potentially habitable - but this doesn't seem like a worry for this question as 'potentially habitable' is clearly defined.
Nice work! Although I guess averaging the two probabilities from the Poisson model and the Laplace rule to end up at 65% would also be valid (and possibly more robust?).
Using the base rate data presented by @michal_dubrawski and @ctsats, I restrict the window from 2013 onwards, where we see a big shift in the number being discovered.
Using this obtain an average rate of 5.72 per year, and applying a Poisson model a 68% probability that 5 or more will be discovered in 2024.
I also experimented with using the Laplace succession rule, and found a 62% probability, but I feel that the Poisson model is more applicable here so I will go with that - I don't expect significant changes in the underlying driving factors on exoplanet discovery.
I also investigated the relationship between the number of exoplanets discovered and the number of potentially habitable exoplanets discovered, but this seems very unclear, so I don't consider the potential driving force of this:
Factors that could move the number up:
- Perhaps we'll see increased use of AI in identifying potentially habitable exoplanets - I am unsure what the current situation here is
Factors that could move the number down:
- If the low hanging fruits within the reach of current detection equipment are all picked - this seems unlikely to me as the galaxy is very big
- If the knowledge of what is potentially habitable changes, I think in the short-term this is likely to restrict the number of planets we consider potentially habitable - but this doesn't seem like a worry for this question as 'potentially habitable' is clearly defined.