ctsats
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Yes
99% (0%)
No

Somewhat surprising, but...

CMA CGM Operations in the Red Sea | Update - Feb 28

The CMA CGM Group has reevaluated the situation in the Southern Area of the Red Sea and the evolving conditions allow us to resume transit on case-by-case basis.

(emphasis mine)

According to Wikipedia, French CMA CGM is the third largest container shipping company in the world. Curiously enough, although mainstream media like Reuters were very quick to report their previous decision to halt such transits, they have said absolutely nothing about this update (only trade publications have reported it).

Needless to say, a similar announcement by either Shell or BP here would be more than enough to resolve this as Yes (even if it is subsequently changed)...

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404_NOT_FOUND
made a comment:

This is some really valuable info, thanks for sharing it.

I do not believe that an announcement would be enough to resolve the question "Yes".

This question will be resolved as "Yes" if there are reports that BP or Shell has resumed shipping on or before 31 March 2024.

I think we would need to see at least one vessel passing through the strait before the end of the question. 

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ctsats
made a comment:

Thanks Nicolò; and I think you are right indeed and I was wrong - it would seem that a mere announcement will not be enough if there are not actual reports confirming such a thing, although there seems to be some residual ambiguity possibly worth of a clarification request (which I have just submitted, of course 😉)...

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